Author Topic: Faction Ranks, Updated  (Read 386 times)

Kevin

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Faction Ranks, Updated
« on: February 27, 2017, 04:46:39 PM »
With another Championship Tournament under our belt, here are some updated ranks [a]:

#1  Rome  (1 win, 2 2nd)
#2  Lizardmen (1 win, 1 2nd, 2 4th) [ b ]
#3  Orcs  (1 win, 1 2nd, 1 4th)
#4  Umenzi  (1 win, 2 3rd)
#5  Dark Elves (1 win, 1 3rd)
#6  Ravenwood (2 2nd 1 4th)
#7  Hawkshold and Carthage  (1 win)  [c]
#9  Wuxing (2 3rd)   [d]
#10  High Elves (1 3rd, 2 4th)
#11 Dwarves (1 2nd)
#12 Persia (1 3rd) [e]
#13 Undead (1 4th)
#14 Monsters & Mercs (shut-out of the top 4)
(not taken yet):  Alexander [e]

[a]  Determined by the following methodology:  win = 8 points  2nd = 4.1 points.  3rd = 2.2 points  4th = 1.31 points.  Different methodologies could produce slightly different rankings.  For example, in this method a 2nd and a 4th beats two 3rds, so Ravenwood places above Wuxing, though it would be easy to put Wuxing above Ravenwood.

[ b ] Lizardmen got a substantial upgrade after the first 3 tournaments, their successes all have been since then (apart from a 4th place finish in the first one).  So they arguably deserve the #1 slot.

[c] Carthage won the first tournament.  Several things have been nerfed since then, so it's higher ranked than it should be.

[d] Wuxing was not available for the first 2 tournaments, while Jaime and I didn't want to play it until it had been out in print for over a month ( = until this year).  So it's lower ranked than it should be.

[e] Persia and Alexander were not available for the first 6 tournaments, so they're lower ranked than they should be.
« Last Edit: February 27, 2017, 05:01:00 PM by Kevin »
However beautiful the strategy, you should occasionally look at the results. - Winston Churchill

Kevin

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Re: Faction Ranks, Updated
« Reply #1 on: February 27, 2017, 04:55:59 PM »
The ranks, showing the "heartbreakers."  Each zero is a player who has made the final 4 at Championship who took this faction and did not make the final 4.

#1  Rome  (1 win, 2 2nd)
#2  Lizardmen (1 win, 1 2nd, 2 4th) 0 0
#3  Orcs  (1 win, 1 2nd, 1 4th) 0
#4  Umenzi  (1 win, 2 3rd) 0 0
#5  Dark Elves (1 win, 1 3rd) 0 0 0
#6  Ravenwood (2 2nd 1 4th) 0 0 0 0 0 0
#7a  Hawkshold  (1 win) 0 0 0
#7b Carthage (1 win) 0 0
#9  Wuxing (2 3rd)   0 0
#10  High Elves (1 3rd, 2 4th) 0 0
#11 Dwarves (1 2nd) 0 0 0
#12 Persia (1 3rd)
#13 Undead (1 4th)
#14 Monsters & Mercs (shut-out of the top 4) 0 0 0
(not taken yet):  Alexander
« Last Edit: February 27, 2017, 06:15:47 PM by Kevin »
However beautiful the strategy, you should occasionally look at the results. - Winston Churchill

Kevin

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Re: Faction Ranks, Updated
« Reply #2 on: February 27, 2017, 06:47:08 PM »
Ranked by Total Glory Won.



1) Rome           (83)
2) Lizardmen    (82.4)
3) Umenzi   (70)
4) High Elves   (60)
5) Hawkshold   (59)
6) Ravenwood    (59)
7) Orcs      (55)
8 ) Dark Elves   (52)
9 ) Carthage    (40)
10) Dwarves     (38)
11) Wuxing    (38)
12) M&M       (18)
13) Undead    (15)
14) Persia    (14)
15) Alexander    (0)

Methodology.  First = 5, 2nd = 3, 3rd = 2, 4th = 1.  These numbers were multiplied by 1 less than the number of players who have made top-4 at Championship to get the points.  (The total number of players who have made final 4 at Championship has varied between 7 and 9 at Championship, and was 5 at Dexcon.)

Alexander and Persia were only available this year, and Alexander wasn't played, so they're artificially low (as is, to a lesser extent, Wuxing).  If you multiply Persia's points by (total player-tournaments / Persia-available player-tournaments, Persia rockets up to the #1 spot at 136.4 for all 3 rankings!)





Points/play rankings:  all tournaments with at least 5 players (Championship #1 - 7, Dexcon 2012, 13, 14) who at some point placed top-4 in Championship:

1) Rome            (20.75)
2 ) Umenzi         (14)
3 ) Persia           (14)
4 ) Carthage      (13.33)
5 ) Lizardmen    (11.14)
6 ) Orcs             (11)
7) Hawkshold    (9.83 )
8 ) Dark Elves    (8.67)
9 ) High Elves    (8.57)
10) Dwarves      (7.6)
11) Undead        (7.5)
12) Wuxing         (6.33)
13) Ravenwood  (5.9)
14) M&M            (3.6)



Methodology.  The numbers from the first ranking were results divided by the number of times they were taken (by players who made the top 4 at Championship at some point) at these tournaments to get the average points/time they were played at a tournament.

As with before, Carthage is over-valued given its win at Championship #1, and its relative unpopularity since.  Lizardmen are a bit undervalued since errata toughened them up.  Persia hasn't been around long enough for its rank to be very meaningful, and Alexander isn't on there at all.


Overall Composite ranking:  the geometric mean of the two numbers:

1 ) Rome             (41.5)
2 ) Umenzi         (31.3)
3 ) Lizardmen     (29.5)
4 ) Orcs             (24.6)
5 ) Hawkshold     (24.1)
6 ) Carthage     (23.1)
7 ) High Elves     (22.7)
8 ) Dark Elves     (21.2)
9) Ravenwood  (18.7)
10 ) Dwarves       (17.0)
11) Wuxing        (15.5)
12) Persia           (14)
13) Undead        (10.6)
14) M&M             (8.0)


Methodology:  I take the geometric mean of the two rankings above.  The theory is that the truth lies somewhere in between total glory and glory-per-time-played, as better factions are more likely to attract players.

Again, Persia is ranked way too low since it's so new.  Wuxing also is slightly low, but probably not enough to change its standing more than a place or two.  Carthage probably is too high since after the first tournament (when the rules were different) it hasn't placed.
« Last Edit: March 02, 2017, 08:04:20 PM by Kevin »
However beautiful the strategy, you should occasionally look at the results. - Winston Churchill

Kevin

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Re: Faction Ranks, Updated
« Reply #3 on: March 02, 2017, 08:00:19 PM »
Updated above by changing the victory points to 1st = 5, 2nd = 3, 3rd = 2, and 4th = 1.  Relative to the old method this gives more weight to placing 3rd or 4th and less (but still a decent amount) to 1st.  This feels better.
However beautiful the strategy, you should occasionally look at the results. - Winston Churchill